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VOL. I

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

Introduction: Comments

  1. 1. Cycles
  2. 2. Putting Cycles to Work in Science and Industry
  3. 3. Definitions and Concepts Used in Cycle Study

CHAPTER II: THE CASE FOR CYCLES

The Case For Cycles: Comments and Text

CHAPTER III: CYCLES SYNCHRONIES

Cycles Synchronies: Comments

  1. 1. Wave Length Differentiation
  2. 2. A Comparative Study of the 6-Year Cycle
  3. 3. A Summary of Nine-Year to Ten-Year Cycles
  4. 4. The 16 2/3-Year Cycles
  5. 5. The 37-Year Cycle

CHAPTER IV: SOME PHYSICAL SCIENCE CYCLES

Some Physical Science Phenomena

  1. 1. Cycles In Physical Science Phenomena
  2. 2. The 11-Year Cycle in the Abundance of Earthquakes, 1305-1898
  3. 3. Forecasting Radio Weather: An Interview with John H. Nelson
  4. 4. Cycles in the Levels of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron
  5. 5. The 17 1/3-Year Cycles in Lake Saki Varves, 2295 B.C.-A.D.1894
  6. 6. The Length of the So-Called 11-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers 1527-1966
  7. 7. The Sunspot Number Constant
  8. 8. The 200-Year Cycle in the Length of the Sunspot Cycle
  9. 9. The 37-Year Cycle in the Variation in the Length of Time Between Sunspot

Maxima A.D. 301-A.D. 1928

  1. 10. The So-Called Eighty-Year Sunspot Cycle
  2. 11. The 42-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers
  3. 12. A Possible 5.89-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers
  4. 13. 17-Week Cycle Found in Sunspots, 1954-1960
  5. 14. The 37-Year Cycle-Continued
  6. 15. The 22-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers, Alternate Cycles Reversed
  7. 16. Reconnaissance for Secondary Cycles in Sunspot Numbers, Alternate Cycles Reversed
  8. 17. The 17.92-Year Cycle in Sunspot Numbers, Alternate Cycles Reversed
  9. 18. A Key to Sunspot-Planetary Relationship

VOL. I

  1. 19. The Average Latitude of Sunspots
  2. 20. The Shape of the Dominant Cycle in Sunspot Numbers
  3. 21. Economic and Sociological Phenomena Related to Solar Activity and Influence

CHAPTER V: SOME BIOLOGICAL CYCLES

Some Biological cycles: Comments

  1. 1. A 29 ½-Day Cycle in the Births of Infants
  2. 2. Cycles in Aftershock
  3. 3. The 9.7-Month Cycle in "Widewake Fairs"
  4. 4. The 9.6-Year Cycle in Lynx Abundance
  5. 5. The 2-Year Cycle of the Evening Grosbeak
  6. 6. The 22 2/3-Year Cycle in Grasshopper Outbreaks
  7. 7. Wildlife Cycles: The 22 2/3-Year Cycle in the Abundance of the European Partridge
  8. 8. The 16 2/3-Year Cycle in Arizona Tree Rings, A.D. 900-1939 and the 16 2/3-Year Cycle in Jave Tree Rings, 1514-1929
  9. 9. The 42-Year Cycle in Tree Rings
  10. 10. The 54-Year Rhythm in Tree Rings
  11. 11. The 17 ¾-Year Cycle in Arizona Tree Rings, A.D. 931-1939
  12. 12. The 6-Month Cycle in the Electric Potential of Trees

CHAPTER VI: SOME ECONOMIC CYCLES

Some Production Cycles

Some Production Cycles: Comments

  1. 1. The 5 ½-Year Cycle in Airplane Traffic, U.S.A., 1930-1955
  2. 2. The 6-Year Rhythm in Orders Received By the General Electric Company, 1893-1946
  3. 3. The 6-Year Cycle in Cotton Production
  4. 4. The 6-Year in Steel Production 1867-1954
  5. 5. The 6.4-Year Cycle in Aluminum Production
  6. 6. The 8-Year Cycle in Cigarette Production
  7. 7. The 4-Year Cycle in the Consumption of Cheese, 1867-1953
  8. 8. The 33-Month Cycle in Residential Building Construction
  9. 9. The 18-Year Rhythm
  10. 10. The 5.6-Year Cycle in Wheat
  11. 11. Cycles in Canadian Pacific Railway Ton Miles
  12. 12. A Forecast of Viscose Rayon Filament Yarn Production
  13. 13. The 5.6-Year Cycle in Sweet Potato Production, 1868-1964
  14. 14. The 9.6-Year Cycle in the Acreage of Wheat
  15. 15. Cycles in the Prices of Malleable Iron Pipe Fittings
  16. 16. The 3 ½-Year Cycle in General Business

CHAPTER VII: SOME ECONOMIC CYCLES CONTINUED

Some Stock Price Cycles

Some Stock Price Cycles: Comments

  1. 1. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices, Part I: The Periodogram

VOL. I

  1. 2. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices, Part II: The 9.2-Year Cycle
  2. 3. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices, Part III: The 18.2-Year Cycle
  3. 4. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices, Comment on the First Three Parts
  4. 5. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices (Continued), Part IV: The 6.01-Year Cycle
  5. 6. A Cycle Analysis of Common Stock Prices (Continued), Part V: The 3.83-Year Cycle
  6. 7. The 46-Month Cycle in Stock Prices
  7. 8. The 17.166-Week Cycle in the Dow-Jones Industrial Stock Price Average, January 9, 1897-February 13, 1960
  8. 9. The 41-Month Cycle in Industrial Common Stock Prices
  9. 10. The 7.94 and 8.39-Year Cycles in Railroad Stock Prices, 1831-1955
  10. 11. The 5.91- or 5.92-Year Cycle in Stock Prices
  11. 12. The 8 ½-Year Cycle in Common Stock Prices
  12. 13. The 6.41-Month Cycle in Stock Prices
  13. 14. The 6.33-Month Cycle in Stock Prices
  14. 15. The Effects of Various Stock Market Trend Calculations

CHAPTER VIII: SOME ECONOMIC CYCLES CONTINUED

Some Other Financial Cycles

Some Other Financial Cycles: Comments

  1. 1. 1956 Postscript-Samuel Benner’s Forecast of 1875
  2. 2. The 9.2- and 8.5-Year Cycles in Pig Iron Prices
  3. 3. The 17 ¾-Year Cycle in Pig Iron Prices, 1784-1951
  4. 4. The 17 ¾-Year Cycle in Cotton Prices, 1731-2-1953-4
  5. 5. The 5.91-Year Cycle in Cotton Prices
  6. 6. The 5 ½-Year Cycle in Corn Prices
  7. 7. The 5 ½-Year Cycle in Corn Prices-Continued
  8. 8. The 42-Year Cycle in European Wheat Prices
  9. 9. The 54-Year Cycle in European Wheat Prices
  10. 10. Long Term Trend of Copper Prices
  11. 11. The 54-Year Cycle in Copper Prices
  12. 12. Business Failures
  13. 13. A Survey of Post Office Revenues

CHAPTER IX: SOME SOCIOLOGICAL CYCLES

Some Sociological Cycles: Comments

  1. 1. Cycles in Church Membership
  2. 2. More About the 18.2-Year Cycle in Immigration
  3. 3. The Cycles and Trend in Patents Issued in the U.S.A.
  4. 4. The 18.2-Year Cycle in the Marriage Rate
  5. 5. The 17.7-Year Cycle in War 600 B.C.-A.D. 1957
  6. 6. Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycle in War
  7. 7. What’s Ahead of War
  8. 8. A New Cycle in War Discovered

CHAPTER X: MISCELLANEOUS

VOL. I

Miscellaneous: Comments

  1. 1. Some of the Items Said to Fluctuate Rhythmically
  2. 2. Identity of Period
  3. 3. Forecasting by Means of Cycles
  4. 4. Irregular Cycles
  5. 5. Non-Symmetrical Cycles
  6. 6. "Kick-in-the-Pants" Cycles
  7. 7. A Fundamental 600-Year Cycle
  8. 8. Dr. Wing’s Latest Cycle Discoveries
  9. 9. Global Patterns of Cycles in Temperature

APPENDICES

List of Sources

Bibliography

Complete Bibliography of the Author’s

Cycle Writings in Chronological Order

Index

Index by Cycle Length

Glossary

VOL. II

CONTENTS

Charts and Diagrams

Concerning Economic Prediction An Introduction

  1. I. Why Trends Are Important
  2. II. Patterns in Growth of Organisms
  3. III. The Growth Trend in Our Basic Industries
  4. IV. Trends in Some Other Industries
  5. V. Some Rhythmic Cycles in Natural Phenomena
  6. VI. The 54-Year Rhythm
  7. VII. The 9-Year Rhythm
  8. VIII. The 3 1/2 –Year Rhythm
  9. IX. The 18-Year Rhythm
  10. X. Causes, Correlation, Conjectures
  11. XI. Analysis and Synthesis
  12. XII. Timing a Business
  13. XIII. Avoiding Some Economic Illusions
  14. XIV. War and Its Dislocations
  15. XV. Postwar Trends
  16. XVI. Postwar Rhythms

      Appendix I

      Appendix II

      Appendix III

      VOL. III

      CONTENTS

Acknowledgements

List of Figures

  1. 1. The Mystery- and the Stage
  2. 2. The Search Begins
  3. 3. Nature’s Mysterious Rhythms
  4. 4. Cycles in You
  5. 5. The Invisible Messenger
  6. 6. The Mob Cycles
  7. 7. The Rhythm of Production
  8. 8. The Cycle of Prices
  9. 9. The Cycles of Wall Street
  10. 10. Why Does it Rain on January 23?
  11. 11. The Patterns of War
  12. 12. Cycles in the Universe
  13. 13. The Ultimate Clue
  14. 14. The Imperative Question

      Index

      List of Figures

  1. 1. Diagram of a Cycle
  2. 2. The 9.6-Year Cycle in Lynx Abundance, 1735-1969
  3. 3. The 9.6-Year Cycle in Atlantic Salmon Abundance, 1880-1956
  4. 4. Cycles in Brain Waves
  5. 5. A Grid for Recording Your Emotions
  6. 6. Lines of Force of a Bar Magnet
  7. 7. Mass Human Excitability, 500 B.C.-A.D. 1922
  8. 8. Presbyterian Church New Membership, 1826-1948
  9. 9. Congregational Church New Membership, 1861-1950
  10. 10. The Cycle of Guilt, 1823-1954
  11. 11. The 18.2-Year Cycle in Marriage Rates in the United States, 1869-1951
  12. 12. The 8.9-Year Cycle in Death Rates in Massachusetts, 1865-1961
  13. 13. The 18.2-Year Cycle of Immigration into the United States, 1824-1950
  14. 14. Annual Cycles of Crime
  15. 15. Is This a Clue to Our Mystery?
  16. 16. The 6-Year Cycle in General Electric Orders Received, 1896-1946
  17. 17. The 5 ½-Year Cycle in Airplane Traffic, 1930-1955
  18. 18. The 6.4-Year Rhythm in Aluminum Production, 1885-1962

CYCLES: The Mysterious Forces That Trigger Evens

  1. 19. The 18 1/3-Year Cycle in Real-Estate Activity, 1795-1958
  2. 20. The 8-Year Cycle in Cigarette Production, 1879-1958
  3. 21. The 6-Year Cycle in Steel Production, 1874-1947
  4. 22. The 33-Month Cycle in Residential Building Construction, 1920-1955
  5. 23. The 9.6-Year Cycle in Wheat Acreage Harvested, 1868-1947
  6. 24. The 9-Year Cycle in Life-Insurance Sales, 1858-1962
  7. 25. The 9.18-Month Cycle in Ton-Miles, Canadian Pacific Railway, 1903-1948
  8. 26. Benner’s 9-Year Cycle in Pig-Iron Prices, 1834-1900
  9. 27. The 54-Year Cycle in European Wheat Prices, 1513-1856
  10. 28. The 3 ½-Year Cycle in Corn Prices, 1860-1948
  11. 29. The 17 ¾-Year Cycle in Cotton Prices, 1740-1945
  12. 30. The 16 2/3-Year Cycle in English Wrought-Iron Prices, 1288-1908
  13. 31. The 17 ¾-Year Cycle in Pig-Iron Prices, 1872-1950
  1. 32. The Price of Oats, 1950-1959
  2. 33. A Stock-Market Forecast
  3. 34. Trends and Cycles
  4. 35. Three Cycles and Their Combination
  5. 36. The Individuality of Stocks
  6. 37. The 9.2-Year Cycle in Stock Prices, 1830-1966
  7. 38. The 41-Month Rhythm in Stock Prices, 1868-1945
  8. 39. The 41-Month Rhythm, Upside Down, 1946-1957
  9. 40. The 7.6-Year Cycle in New York’s Barometric Pressure, 1874-1967
  10. 41. The 4.33-Year Cycle in Philadelphia’s Precipitation, 1820-1960
  11. 42. The 4.33-Year Cycle in Baltimore’s Precipitation, 1820-1960
  12. 43. Wheeler’s Phases in Climate
  13. 44. Earthquakes and Sunspots, 1829-1896
  14. 45. The 142-Year Cycle in International Battles, 1050-1915
  15. 46. The 57-Year in International Battles, 1415-1930
  16. 47. The 22 1/5-Year Cycle in International Battles, 1415-1930
  17. 48. The 11 1/5-Year Cycle in International Battles, 1760-1947
  18. 49. The Way Cycles, Combines, 1930-1970
  19. 50. Index of International Battles, 1820-1958
  20. 51. Electromagnetic Wave Spectrum
  21. 52. Average Annual Sunspot Numbers, 1700-1968
  22. 53. Sunspots and Terrestrial Magnetism, 1835-1930
  23. 54. Sunspots and Manufacturing, 1875-1931
  24. 55. The Double Sunspot Cycle, 1700-1968
  25. 56. Abbot’s Cycles of St. Louis Precipitation, 1860-1887
  26. 57. Various Other Weather Cycles, 1934-1939
  27. 58. Solar Radiation at Calama, Chile, April 1920
  28. 59. A Cycle in a Variable Star, 1922-1930
  29. 60. A Cycle in a Quasar
  30. 61. Planetary Relationships
  31. 62. The 5.91-Year Cycles on Parade
  32. 63. The 8-Year Cycles on Parade
  33. 64. The 9.2-Year Cycles on Parade
  34. 65. The 9.6-Year Cycles on Parade
  35. 66. The 18.2-Year Cycles on Parade

VOL. IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Commodity Prices

Commodity Price Charts

Stock Prices

Stock Price Charts

Other Financial Data

Other Financial Charts

Agriculture

Agriculture Charts

Building Construction and Real Estate

Building Construction and Real Estate Charts

Manufacturing

Manufacturing Charts

Services

Services Charts

Miscellaneous Economic Activity

Miscellaneous Economic Activity Charts

Bibliography

Precis Index by Author

Wave Length Index

Subject Index

VOL. IV

INTRODUCTION

This volume, which records allegations of cycles in economic data, is the first of a series of monographs dealing with allegations of cycles in all aspects of the natural and social sciences. No attempt has been made to evaluate the significance of cycles listed. References have been limited to material in the libraries of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, the Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh, the Carnegie

Institute of Technology, the University of Pittsburgh, and in otherwise conveniently available sources. The references have been further limited to allegations of cycles of specific wave length.

In this presentation, references have been listed alphabetically by subject matter under the following main headings:

Commodity Prices

Stock Prices

Other Financial Data

General Business

Agriculture

Building Construction and Real Estate

Manufacturing

Services

Miscellaneous Economic Activity

Under all alphabetical sub-headings, the references have been arranged by cycle length, unless otherwise noted. An exception has been made when one single reference lists more than one cycle in the same phenomenon; in such instances, the reference has been arranged according to the shortest cycle length alleged.

Contained in each précis is the name of the time series involved, the period of the cycle, and the author. In addition, when available, the following statistics have been included in each précis: the time interval over which the cycle is alleged to exist; the locale involved; the nature of the cycle (whether rhythmic or average); the amplitude of the average wave; the date of an ideal crest or trough; information on whether or not the cycle continued to move in the ideal pattern after discovery; indication of whether or not the author includes charts, figures, or data in his work; and any other pertinent information supplied by the author.

This volume has been amassed for the following reasons: (1) it calls attention to the very large number of economic phenomena in which rhythmic fluctuations (or cycles present on the average) have been alleged; (2) it calls attention to the very large number of wave lengths that have been alleged; (3) it provides raw material for a comprehensive checking program to determine the significance of the alleged cycles; (4) it indicates wave lengths common to various economic phenomena; (5) it provides a bibliography of economic cycle allegations; and (6) it provides a list of cycle lengths in economic data which can be compared with cycle lengths alleged to be present in non-economic phenomena which will be found in subsequent volumes (in preparation) of the Catalogue of Cycles, in order to see, if and when identities or seeming identities appear, whether of not an interrelationship may be possible and to find, when possible, the cause of the carious behaviors.

Because economics is within the framework of everyone’s interest, this field was selected as the base of the first volume. Contained herein is a history of the well-being (or lack of well-being) of all human beings.

The word "alleged" has been used deliberately to indicate that no significance has been ascribed by the Foundation to any of the various cycles to which the author refers; in truth, any cycle present merely on the average is suspect, and even a rhythmic cycle may be present by chance. The results of this compilation must speak for themselves; any conclusions drawn from this material must be regarded as personal and any deductions derived must be founded on the intellectual integrity and scientific competence of the investigator-reader.

The Foundation hopes that this study will make an important contribution to the literature of economic cycles and prove a forerunner of many similar studies from which society can obtain information and guidance for the solving of serious problems incident to the interpretation of economic activity.

Credit should be given to Erlene Fails, Catherine Herzel, and Helen Shirk, who did some of the preliminary library research; to Mary Montanari, for the charting; and to Joan Andersen and Marge Copeman who, respectively, typed and varityped the manuscript.

Louise L. Wilson



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